Qatar in Focus

Increased focus on gas

May 30, 2021:  Qatar's conservative 2021 budget and robust policy response to the Covid crisis support a cyclical recovery. The resolution of the Qatar-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rift is unlikely to lead to major macro gains, in our view. Qatar could become the swing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) producer going forward, with market share focus and more flexible pricing. We expect its LNG expansion plans to boost real GDP growth and fiscal surpluses to high-single digits and mid-single digits on average over 2021-27. This is likely to underpin sovereign creditworthiness, but the growth model post-2027 is unclear.